A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
